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Appendix A: Performance and Resource Tables

 

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 3.1

Advance understanding and predict changes in the Earth’s environment to meet America’s economic, social, and environmental needs

OBJECTIVE 3.1 RESOURCES
(Dollars in Millions)
  FY 20021
Actual		 FY 20031
Actual		 FY 20041
Actual		 FY 2005
Actual
Total Funding $1,500.8 $1,631.6 $1,123.1 $1,155.0
FTE – Full-Time Equivalent 5,885 5,537 5,363 5,253
1 In the FY 2004 PAR, the 2002-2004 amounts for the mission support goal were distributed among the four goals. In this PAR, the 2002-2004 mission support levels were separated out resulting in lower 2002-2004 levels than as reported in the FY 2004 PAR for the other four goals. (back)

PERFORMANCE GOAL: Understand climate variability and change to enhance society's ability to plan and respond* (NOAA)

PERFORMANCE GOAL RESOURCES (NOAA)
(Dollars in Millions)
  FY 20021
Actual		 FY 20031
Actual		 FY 20041
Actual		 FY 2005
Actual
Total Funding $312.0 $347.5 $239.5 $256.9
FTE – Full-Time Equivalent 785 625 603 599
1 In the FY 2004 PAR, the 2002-2004 amounts for the mission support goal were distributed among the four goals. In this PAR, the 2002-2004 mission support levels were separated out resulting in lower 2002-2004 levels than as reported in the FY 2004 PAR for the other four goals. (back)

PERFORMANCE GOAL MEASURES (NOAA)
MEASURE FY 2002
Actual		 FY 2003
Actual		 FY 2004
Actual		 FY 2005
Target 		FY 2005
Actual		 FY 2005
Met/Not Met
U.S. temperature forecasts (cumulative skill score) 18 17 17 18 19 Green (Met)
Reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of the North American (NA) carbon uptake Identified five pilot carbon profiling sites and four new oceanic carbon tracks. Established five pilot atmospheric profiling sites. Established one oceanic carbon track; identified two additional oceanic carbon tracks. Reduced uncertainty of atmospheric estimates of NA carbon uptake to +/- 0.5 Gt. carbon per year. Reduce uncertainty of atmospheric estimates of NA carbon uptake to +/- 0.48 Gt. carbon per year. Reduced uncertainty of atmospheric estimates of NA carbon uptake to +/- 0.4 Gt. carbon per year. Green (Met)
Determine the national explained variance (%) for temperature and precipitation for the contiguous United States using USCRN stations Captured more than 85% of the annual national temperature trend and more than 55% of the annual national precipitation trend for the contiguous United States. Captured more than 95% of the annual national temperature trend and 84% of the annual national precipitation trend for the contiguous United States. Captured more than 96% of the annual national temperature trend and more than 90% of the annual national precipitation trend for the contiguous United States. Capture 96.7% of the annual national temperature trend and 90% of the annual national precipitation trend for the contiguous United States. Captured 96.9% of the annual national temperature trend and 91.4% of the annual national precipitation trend for the contiguous United States. Green (Met)
New climate observations introduced 192 282 529 1,014 1,133 Green (Met)
Assess and model carbon sources and sinks globally Established three new global background sites as part of the global flask network. Completed a working prototype of a coupled carbon-climate model. Developed carbon climate scenarios for input to assessment. Submit quality-controlled Atlantic Ocean carbon datasets from the CO2/CLIVAR hydrographic cruises to national data centers.1 Submitted quality-controlled Atlantic Ocean carbon datasets from the CO2/CLIVAR hydrographic cruises to national data centers. Green (Met)
1 This FY 2005 target was incorrectly listed in the FY 2006 Annual Performance Plan (APP) as “Improve measurements of North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean basin carbon dioxide fluxes to within +/-0.1 petagrams carbon/year. (back)

PERFORMANCE GOAL: Secure society's needs for weather and water information* (NOAA)

PERFORMANCE GOAL RESOURCES (NOAA)
(Dollars in Millions)
  FY 20021
Actual		 FY 20031
Actual		 FY 20041
Actual		 FY 2005
Actual
Total Funding $1,188.8 $1,284.1 $883.6 $898.1
FTE – Full-Time Equivalent 5,100 4,912 4,760 4,654
1 In the FY 2004 PAR, the 2002-2004 amounts for the mission support goal were distributed among the four goals. In this PAR, the 2002-2004 mission support levels were separated out resulting in lower 2002-2004 levels than as reported in the FY 2004 PAR for the other four goals. (back)

PERFORMANCE GOAL MEASURES (NOAA)
MEASURE FY 2002
Actual		 FY 2003
Actual		 FY 2004
Actual		 FY 2005
Target 		FY 2005
Actual		 FY 2005
Met/Not Met
Lead time (minutes), accuracy (%), and false alarm rate (FAR, %) for tornado warnings Lead Time 12 13 13 13 FY 2005 data through
July 2005: 13		 Green (Met)
Accuracy 76% 79% 75% 73% FY 2005 data through
July 2005: 76 		Green (Met)
FAR 73% 76% 74% 73% FY 2005 data through
July 2005: 77 		Yellow (Slightly below target)

Performance was not met, because:
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) is currently not meeting the FY 2005 target for tornado false alarm ratio. There is a strong statistical relationship between accuracy and FAR using current technology and operational methodology. A higher rate of accuracy results in a higher FAR. National Emergency Manager and media surveys have indicated that higher FAR is “tolerable” if it results in longer lead times and increased accuracy.

Strategies for Improvement:
Training: Enhanced Mesocyclone and Tornado Vortex Signature Algorithms delivered during FY 2005 have improved Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) tornado and analysis detection tools. The Open Radar Data Acquisition (ORDA) platform will be deployed in Builds 7 and 8, and Super Resolution WSR-88D data will be added to the ORDA in Build 9. Super resolution data provides forecasters the capability to view more precise images of tornadic signatures on radar displays, enabling earlier decisions on tornado warning, and reducing false alarms.

Lead time (minutes) and accuracy (%) for flash flood warnings Lead Time 52 41 47 48 FY 2005 data through
July 2005: 54		 Green (Met)
Accuracy 89% 89% 89% 89% FY 2005 data through
July 2005: 89		 Green (Met)
Hurricane forecast track error (48 hours) Nautical Miles 122 107 94 128 FY 2005 data available
December 2005		 N/A
Accuracy (%) (threat score) of Day 1 precipitation forecasts 30 29 29 27 29 Green (Met)
Lead time (hours) and accuracy (%) for winter storm warnings Lead Time 13 14 15 15 FY 2005 data through
July 2005: 17		 Green (Met)
Accuracy 89% 90% 91% 90% FY 2005 data through
July 2005: 91 		Green (Met)
Cumulative percentage of U.S. shoreline and inland areas that have improved ability to reduce coastal hazard impacts 8% 17% 17% 28% 28% Green (Met)

 

* Targets and actuals have been updated since the FY 2004 PAR as a result of more recent and accurate data. Amounts also may differ from those reported in the Congressional Justification exhibits due to the inclusion of mandatory funds in the amounts cited above. (back)

 
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